Just two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
